The Report · Archive

Every edition, kept permanently

Including the parts we got wrong. Where a later edition corrected an earlier one, the correction is published against the edition it applies to.

Most market commentary in San Miguel de Allende has a short and convenient memory. Forecasts that age badly are quietly replaced, and the version you can find today is the one that happens to look right. We publish quarterly and we leave every edition up, so you can read what we said before the outcome was known and judge the methodology on its record rather than on its latest claim.

Q3 2026

Current edition

80 pages Published 5 October 2026

Fewer sales, more listings, no measured change in price. And what our own Q2 edition got wrong.

Closed-sale data exists after all: a median closed price of $480,000 and a median 178 days to sell in the first half of 2026, on brokerage readings of the local MLS. Closings through August ran 12.5 per cent behind 2025 into 814 listings. This edition also corrects the Q2 edition in public, after an audit found errors in its acquisition-tax arithmetic, its rental model and its claim that no closed-sale median had been published.

  • Median closed sale price $480,000 and median time to sell 178 days, across 181 sales in the first half of 2026
  • Closings through August 12.5% behind 2025, with 814 homes listed and 30 months of inventory
  • Four commissioned brokerages publish readings of the local MLS; no public registry stands behind any of them
  • The Q2 edition is corrected in public: the acquisition tax, the closing-cost floor, the rental model and more

Corrected since publication

  • Said, when first published on 5 October 2026, that three commissioned brokerages publish readings of the local MLS. There are four. Live In San Miguel also publishes a year-to-date report on the AMPI MLS: 339 closings from 7 January to 30 September 2026 and a median of $385,000 across all closings with a recorded price, against the $480,000 median of houses and condominiums to 24 June that this edition leads with. The two are on different bases and neither replaces the other. The edition was revised to add the fourth source, and to bring one quoted cost up to date: Live In San Miguel’s page gives the foreign-buyer permit at about MXN 8,500 per person, where the edition had 7,500 from a reading in July. Nothing else in it changed. Found and corrected 8 October 2026.

The PDF was revised on 8 October 2026 to carry this correction, and says so in its opening pages. The first printing is kept on file.

Get this edition

Free. The download starts on the next screen. We email you when a new edition is out or the numbers change, and you can tell us to stop at any time. The phone number is optional: only Diego would ever use it, and no agent or broker receives your details. Privacy notice.

Q2 2026

Archived

63 pages Published 27 July 2026

The market cooled. The Q1 narrative did not survive contact with the Q2 data.

Inventory rose sharply through the first half of 2026 and months-of-supply roughly doubled against the same period in 2025. This edition sets out what changed, corrects two figures the Q1 edition carried, and states plainly which numbers in this market cannot be sourced at all.

  • Months of inventory averaged 29.6 for Jan–May 2026, against 17.6 a year earlier
  • Active listings peaked at 860 in May 2026, up roughly 45% year on year
  • No public registry publishes SMA transaction data — every figure traces to one brokerage
  • The widely cited "504 closings in 2025" was never published by anyone

Corrected by a later edition

  • Applied the municipal acquisition tax (ISAI) rate to the full property value, omitting the statutory deduction of ten annual UMAs (MXN 427,946.40 in 2026) from the taxable base — Ley de Hacienda para los Municipios del Estado de Guanajuato, Art. 181, now Ley Hacendaria Municipal del Estado de Guanajuato, Art. 338. Effective ISAI is lower than printed: 3.24 per cent rather than 3.58 at MXN 5m, and 3.62 rather than 3.79 at MXN 10m; the statutory closing-cost floor is 4.3 and 4.4 per cent, not 4.6. It also added the municipality’s 30 per cent charge for authorising a private valuer’s appraisal on top of the appraisal fee; Article 25 of the 2026 Ley de Ingresos sets it at 30 per cent of that fee, in its place. The closing-costs briefing on this site carries the corrected figures. Found and corrected 24 September 2026; the appraisal reading corrected 5 October 2026.
  • Stated that no median sale price from closed sales had been published for San Miguel de Allende. One had: Rafael Mora Real Estate published a Q1 2026 market-wide median of $480K from closed transactions on 14 April 2026, before this edition went to press. Since 1 August 2026 a second brokerage agent has published monthly closed-sale medians, days to sell and sale-to-ask from the AMPI MLS. The market tracker on this site now reconciles every published figure. Found and corrected 24 September 2026.
  • Stated that every price and volume figure traced to a single brokerage, and that no days-on-market figure, sale-to-list ratio or buyer nationality split existed. Four commissioned brokerages publish readings of the local MLS, and since 1 August 2026 one has published a median time to sell (178 days in the first half of 2026), a sale-to-ask ratio (96 per cent of final asking price) and the share of identified buyers from the United States (66 per cent). Found and corrected 5 October 2026.
  • Withdrew the 521 resale closings that the Q1 edition printed for 2022, saying no source could be found. The figure is in Realty San Miguel’s update of 15 January 2025, beside 404 for 2024 and 425 for 2023. The withdrawal was wrong and the figure is reinstated as that brokerage’s reading of its MLS view. Found and corrected 5 October 2026.
  • Said the municipal table of cadastral unit values could not be located. Article 5 of the 2026 Ley de Ingresos prints it; what is unpublished is the map assigning each street to a zone. Found and corrected 5 October 2026.
  • Printed a short-term rental net yield of 0.70 per cent after deducting 16 per cent IVA and the 4 per cent state lodging tax from the same gross figure. Both are charged to the guest on a price that excludes them, so the deduction was right on neither reading of the revenue. The Q3 edition prints both readings and no single yield. Q2 also described the MXN 11,248.64 of Article 24 fraction XIII(d) as a change-of-use charge; it is a use-and-occupancy authorisation. Found and corrected 5 October 2026.
  • In the six-market comparison: called Guadalajara Mexico’s second-busiest airport and put it thirty minutes from Ajijic (it ranked third in 2025 on AFAC data reported by Mexico News Daily, and is about 40 km and a modelled 41 minutes away); called BJX the nearest airport and the smallest of six (Querétaro’s is nearer, and two in the same table were smaller); and ranked six markets by price on six different bases. Found and corrected 5 October 2026.
  • Printed the Banxico-Fed interest differential as 3.25 points. That was the position on 6 March 2026; on the day of publication it was 2.75. Found and corrected 5 October 2026.
  • Called the 2026 fideicomiso permit fee unresolved between two figures. It is MXN 21,648.83 under Article 25 fraction V(a) of the Ley Federal de Derechos, plus MXN 596.29 under fraction III for examining the application. Found and corrected 5 October 2026.
  • Gave four conditions for the principal-residence exemption and said a land-to-built ratio could not be sourced. Articles 154 and 155 of the Reglamento de la Ley del Impuesto sobre la Renta add two: land of no more than three times the built area, and documentary proof before the notary that the property is the seller’s home. Found and corrected 5 October 2026.
  • Printed a price outlook ("flat to modestly lower prices") in a report whose method section says it makes no forecast, and several figures taken from search-result summaries rather than the pages themselves. All are removed in the Q3 edition, which lists them. Found and corrected 5 October 2026.

The archived PDF is the edition exactly as published, with a correction notice bound onto the front of it. We have not edited the pages themselves.

Get this archived edition

Free. The download starts on the next screen. We email you when a new edition is out or the numbers change, and you can tell us to stop at any time. The phone number is optional: only Diego would ever use it, and no agent or broker receives your details. Privacy notice.

Q1 2026

Archived

23 pages Published 1 April 2026

A record year by volume, and a bifurcated market underneath it.

The first edition. Covered the 2025 transaction year, the divergence between rising volume and falling average price, the short-term rental yield distribution, and a five-market comparison.

Corrected by a later edition

  • Stated 504 resale closings in 2025 as a reported figure. It was never published by any source: 404 closings were reported for 2024 alongside a 24.68% increase for 2025, and 504 is the product of the two. Q2 2026 restates it as implied.
  • Described January 2026 as a decisive rebound. On the fuller first-half data that reading did not hold; inventory rose materially through Q2. Q2 2026 revises the outlook.

The archived PDF is the edition exactly as published, with a correction notice bound onto the front of it. We have not edited the pages themselves.

Get this archived edition

Free. The download starts on the next screen. We email you when a new edition is out or the numbers change, and you can tell us to stop at any time. The phone number is optional: only Diego would ever use it, and no agent or broker receives your details. Privacy notice.

Email Diego Lujan

diego@diegolujanstudio.com

Or open a new message in

Gmail Outlook Mail app

He answers every message himself, usually within two working days. You can also ask through the form.