Prices and Appreciation in San Miguel de Allende

$568,829

Average resale sale price, 2025

Down from $650,462 in 2024. An average, not a median, and reported by a single brokerage.

29.6 months

Average inventory, Jan-May 2026

Against 17.6 months in the same period of 2025. The same source calls 15 to 18 months normal here.

860

Active listings, May 2026

Up 45 percent on 593 a year earlier. 745 in June, 805 in July, 814 in August.

$480K

Median closed sale price, H1 2026

181 AMPI MLS closings, per one brokerage agent's report. September alone: $372,500 on 38 sales; August: $595K on 27.

San Miguel de Allende has no public transaction registry. The Guanajuato Registro Público de la Propiedad publishes no compraventa statistics. AMPI San Miguel de Allende, the local realtor association, publishes listings and an agent directory and nothing else; we checked its site directly on 23 July 2026. There is a shared local MLS, the AMPI San Miguel de Allende MLS, but it is not publicly accessible and publishes no statistics of its own.

The practical consequence is that every hard number about San Miguel prices, including the ones below, is a brokerage’s reading of that MLS. Realty San Miguel’s monthly updates supply the averages, closing counts and inventory. Rafael Mora Real Estate published a market-wide median for the first quarter of 2026 on 14 April, and since 1 August 2026 Mike Fanelli, an agent with The Agency San Miguel de Allende, has published medians and time to sell from the same MLS every month. Live In San Miguel, a fourth brokerage, publishes a year-to-date report on every closing in the MLS weekly presentations, which we first read on 8 October 2026. Two firms reading one MLS do not produce identical counts: for the first half of 2026 one reports 186 closings and the other, whose June stops on the 24th, 181. All four earn a commission when property changes hands. It is the best data that exists, and we use it, but nothing independent can verify it. Treat that as a permanent caveat attached to every figure on this page.

The headline: 2026 has cooled

The clearest signal is supply, and it is not ambiguous.

Two notes on that table. First, Realty San Miguel describes 12 or more months of inventory as ordinary for San Miguel and 15 to 18 months as normal, on the argument that this is an almost entirely cash market whose absorption rate never resembles a mortgage-driven one. By that benchmark 29.6 months is 1.6 to 2 times normal, not merely elevated. In March 2026 the firm said inventory in several price ranges was as high as it had been since the period following the 2008 financial crisis, though it published no band-by-band numbers.

Second, the June fall from 860 to 745 is not absorption. The source attributes it to withdrawals, expirations and sellers choosing other strategies. It also states the decline was 81 properties, which is wrong: 860 minus 745 is 115. We publish the arithmetic error because the source has not corrected it, and because it bears on how much weight any single monthly figure can carry.

What do homes sell for in San Miguel de Allende?

Applying the reported 24.68 percent increase to 404 closings implies roughly 504 sales in 2025. That figure is arithmetic, not reporting. The source never stated a 2025 count, and any page presenting 504 as a published number is misrepresenting it.

The two changes for 2025 are the interesting pair: units up 24.68 percent, dollars up 9.03 percent. More transactions, less money. The average sale price fell $81,633, or 12.6 percent, and sales above $2 million fell from 19 to 12. Realty San Miguel attributes roughly half the decline to the loss of those luxury transactions and the rest to elevated inventory.

That attribution is worth taking seriously, because it is also the reason the average is a weak statistic here. A market closing four to five hundred homes a year, in which a dozen sales above $2 million occur, has a mean that a handful of $3 million to $5 million transactions can move by tens of thousands of dollars. The 2025 average did not fall because typical houses lost 12.6 percent of their value. It fell because the mix of what sold changed. A 12.6 percent drop in the average is not a 12.6 percent drop in prices, and should never be published as one.

The correct fix is a median from closed sales, and one has been public since 14 April 2026.

What does the median home sell for?

The first public one came from Rafael Mora Real Estate, whose page for a gated first-quarter report gives a market-wide median closed price of $480K across all residential transactions in Q1 2026. We have not read the full report. Since 1 August 2026 Mike Fanelli, an agent with The Agency San Miguel de Allende, has reported medians every month from closed-sale data in the AMPI San Miguel de Allende MLS. His figures cover houses and condominiums, exclude land and commercial sales, and convert peso prices to dollars: the half-year report’s methodology note gives 17.4 pesos per dollar, though its text also says each month’s average rate, and the September report says only “the prevailing exchange rate”.

Updated 5 October 2026 with September. The September report describes its prices as final sale prices and restates August’s sales volume, from $16.6 million to $15.9 million, without explanation, so September may not be measured on the same basis as the months before it. The market tracker sets out what changed.

Three things follow. First, the skew described above is now measured: across the same 181 homes, the average ran about 31 percent above the median. A handful of large sales pulls the mean well above what the typical home sold for, which is why the median is the figure to use.

Second, the monthly medians are too volatile to read as a trend. On 25 to 38 sales a month, a few deals move the whole median: $648K in April, $349K in June, $422,000 in July, $595,000 in August, $372,500 in September. None of those swings is a change in what houses are worth: August’s median was 41 percent above July’s and September’s 37 percent below August’s, in a market where nothing else moved by a tenth of that. The half-year figure is the steadier one.

Third, do not set these figures against Realty San Miguel’s. Its $568,829 average for 2025 and Fanelli’s $627K average for the first half of 2026 come from different firms and different periods, and neither is a price index. Subtracting one from the other would suggest a rise that nothing has measured.

The median does settle one question the asking-price figures could not. The medians in circulation from listing-portal scrapes, such as MXN 5.2 million or roughly US$298,000, sit about 38 percent below the closed-sale median. Asking prices do not ordinarily sit below selling prices, so the two are almost certainly measuring different stock: the portals weighted toward peso-priced domestic listings, the MLS toward dollar-priced resale to foreign buyers. That difference is why the two should never share a table.

A third brokerage publishes a median on a different basis. Live In San Miguel’s report for 7 January to 30 September 2026, compiled from the AMPI MLS weekly presentations and read on 8 October 2026, puts the median of the 327 closings with a recorded price at $385K, out of 339 closings of every kind. It is not comparable with the $480K, which covers houses and condominiums only, and the two should never be averaged.

The caveats are the ones every San Miguel transaction figure carries. There is no public registry to check the medians against. The MLS records MLS transactions and may not capture all private sales. Every publisher named here earns commissions. And each is one firm’s count: Realty San Miguel, reading the same MLS, reports 186 closings through June where Fanelli counts 181.

The market tracker reconciles these figures every month.

Corrected 8 October 2026: earlier versions of this page said three brokerages publish readings of the AMPI MLS and that one sale-to-ask figure and one nationality share existed. Live In San Miguel is a fourth, with a $385K median of all closings, a 96 percent sale-to-ask ratio and a 69 percent US share for 7 January to 30 September 2026 (read 8 October 2026). They said no 2026 closing count would be published here; Realty San Miguel’s count through August, 253 against 289, is the market tracker’s canonical figure (update of 9 September 2026). They said Mike Fanelli converts pesos at each month’s average rate, where his methodology note gives 17.4; that Los Frailes was absent from the aggregator’s table, which since its update of 21 September 2026 carries a row labelled Villa de los Frailes; and that a US$3,000 transfer yields roughly 51,000 pesos, where 17.46 gives about 52,400. The SHF index is now the second quarter’s, 7.3 percent, published on 10 August 2026, when SHF revised the first quarter from 8.7 to 8.6.

Corrected 24 September 2026: earlier versions of this page said no median from closed sales was published for any year. One has been public since 14 April 2026 (Rafael Mora Real Estate, Q1 2026: $480K), and a brokerage agent has published monthly medians and days to sell from the AMPI MLS since 1 August 2026.

What is the price per square metre in San Miguel de Allende?

There is no price per square metre derived from closed sales in San Miguel de Allende. Not one. Every figure available is either scraped from listing portals or crowdsourced, and they do not agree.

The city-centre crowdsourced figure sits 74 percent above the citywide asking median published three days earlier. Part of that is a genuine centre premium and part is that the two are not measuring the same thing, which is precisely the problem: the published figures cannot be reconciled because none of them documents a method. Numbeo’s sample is nine people. Publishing a two-decimal-place peso figure off nine contributors is a presentation choice, not a measurement.

The neighbourhood-level table below is the only one of its kind we could find. It is one aggregator’s listing-portal scrape with no disclosed sample sizes, and we reproduce it labelled rather than endorsed.

Three things to notice. Ojo de Agua is absent from it entirely, so no price per square metre of any kind is published for it. Los Frailes is absent from the 16 June table above; the publisher’s update of 21 September 2026 adds a row labelled Villa de los Frailes, at MXN 24,000 to 36,000 per square metre, a label that may not be coextensive with Los Frailes. The same publisher gave San Antonio as a point figure of MXN 39,600/m² on 2 April 2026 and as a range of 32,000 to 55,000 ten weeks later, without reconciling the two. And the same publisher’s land table puts Centro land at MXN 18,000/m², well below its own figure for built Centro property, which is not impossible but is unexplained.

With inventory at 29.6 months, asking prices sit above clearing prices by a margin that has barely been measured. Two brokerages publish a sale-to-ask figure and both put it at 96 percent: Mike Fanelli for the first half of 2026, from weekly AMPI transaction reports that he says the sold archive cannot verify, and Live In San Miguel for 298 sales from 7 January to 30 September 2026, from the same weekly presentations. Two readings of one MLS agreeing is a cross-check, not independent confirmation; the 92 to 97 percent ratio in wider circulation is inferred, and the publisher carrying it says so itself.

The 2026 turn, month by month

The January average of $649,316 is the only monthly price in Realty San Miguel’s updates through June. It sits 14 percent above the 2025 full-year average, and it covers a single peak-snowbird month in a market closing on the order of 40 homes a month, where one large sale moves the mean. It is not a 2026 run rate. The monthly medians a second source has published since August, set out above, are not one either: they swung by some $300,000 between April and June.

March is the pattern in miniature: more closings, materially less money. The firm itself described the market as showing conflicting signals.

The closing count that was revised without explanation

Realty San Miguel’s 2026 year-to-date series carries one unexplained revision, so every count below is quoted with its source and its basis.

Realty San Miguel’s May 2026 post reports 197 closings through May 2026 against 190 in the same period of 2025. Its June 2026 post reports 186 resales through June 2026 against 220 through June 2025. A year-to-date count cannot fall from 197 at five months to 186 at six, and the 2025 comparative cannot rise from 190 to 220 for an overlapping period. Either one post carries revised or differently defined data, or one is wrong. The source does not acknowledge the discrepancy.

Taken at face value the June figure is a 15.5 percent year-on-year decline in closings. Taken at face value the May figure is a 3.7 percent increase. Those are different markets.

A second reading narrows the question without settling it. Mike Fanelli’s report, drawn from the same MLS, counts 181 home sales in the first half of 2026, with June running only to the 24th. That sits close to the June post’s 186 and uneasily with 197 through May, which suggests, on our reading, that the May figure is the outlier. Two brokerages reading one MLS do not produce identical counts, so this corroborates an order of magnitude, not a number. The firm’s later updates continue the lower series: 226 through July against 258, and 253 through August against 289. The market tracker treats that as the canonical year-to-date count, because it is the only one published with a prior-year comparison.

Are San Miguel de Allende prices rising or falling?

No repeat-sales index and no hedonic index exists for San Miguel de Allende, and the closed-sale medians published since April 2026 cannot stand in for one: a median of what sold moves with the mix of what sold, by some $300,000 between April and June 2026 in one brokerage agent’s monthly figures. There is therefore no measured appreciation rate for this city, at any level of geography.

What exists instead:

• Closed-sale averages, which fell 12.6 percent in 2025 and are a mix statistic, not a price index.
• Closed-sale medians, public since April 2026 and published monthly since August by brokerages reading the AMPI MLS, which resist the pull of a few large sales better than averages and still move with the mix.
• Asking-price estimates, which one aggregator puts about 9.5 percent higher in nominal pesos than a year earlier and 17 to 20 percent higher over two years. These are asks, not sales, and in pesos, not dollars.
• Modelled appreciation of 8 to 10 percent citywide and 9 to 13 percent by colonia from the same aggregator, which lists Realty San Miguel among its own sources and so had access to the closed-sale data pointing the other way.
• The national SHF index, which recorded 7.3 percent annual growth in Q2 2026 on preliminary figures (the first quarter, first published as 8.7 percent, was revised to 8.6), with a national median appraisal value of MXN 1,299,580 and an average of MXN 1,960,032 for January to June. It covers only homes bought with a mortgage, which structurally excludes almost all of San Miguel’s market, and its national median is a fraction of what foreign buyers pay here. SHF publishes no San Miguel series. The nearest metro datapoint is León at 7.7 percent, which is a poor proxy and not the same market. Guanajuato state was 8.1 percent in the same release.

Aggregator forecasts for the twelve months from July 2026 put well-positioned homes at 4 to 8 percent, average and overpriced listings at flat to 3 percent, and stale luxury as needing cuts of 5 to 10 percent. Full-year scenarios from the same publisher run 5 to 7 percent base, 3 to 5 percent downside, 8 to 10 percent upside. These are forecasts, not statistics, and they are stated in pesos. A 5 to 7 percent peso gain against a peso that has strengthened against the dollar is roughly flat to negative for a dollar buyer.

For the luxury tier specifically, the only 2026 release we found is a Sotheby’s announcement describing one of the busiest first quarters in company history. It contains no sales counts, no dollar volume, no prices, no days on market and no inventory. It is a marketing statement and cannot be cited as evidence of anything.

The currency, which is where dollar buyers actually lose

The peso strengthened sharply through 2025 to close the year near 18.00 per dollar — published estimates of the full-year move disagree, at close to 14 percent against nearly 16 percent — and the rate stood at 17.46 on 23 July 2026 on the ECB reference rate. That is a large move and it is frequently mangled, so two distinctions matter.

Spot rates and annual averages are different measures. The IRS yearly average was 18.330 pesos per dollar for 2024 and 19.212 for 2025. Those describe the average level across each year, not the start-to-end move, and quoting one as if it were the other produces nonsense.

The second distinction is what the move actually touches. San Miguel is overwhelmingly a cash, dollar-referenced market, so a stronger peso does not lower dollar asking prices. It raises the real dollar cost of everything denominated in pesos: construction and renovation, domestic labour, predial, notary fees and transfer taxes. A US$3,000 monthly transfer that once converted to about 60,000 pesos yielded about 52,400 at the 23 July 2026 rate of 17.46, and about 53,900 at Banxico’s FIX of 17.9780 on 7 October. Budget renovation work at today’s rate, not the rate you remember.

No source measures how much of the 2026 slowdown the currency explains. The purchasing-power arithmetic is solid; the causal link to San Miguel transaction volumes is inference.

What the asking price leaves out

The headline price is not the cost. Two figures here come from primary law rather than from brokerages, which makes them among the most reliable numbers on this page.

Acquisition tax (ISAI) in San Miguel de Allende is not the flat 2 percent widely repeated online. The 2026 municipal Ley de Ingresos sets a progressive tariff topping out at MXN 39,125 plus 4 percent of value above MXN 1.5 million, and Article 338 of the Ley Hacendaria Municipal para el Estado de Guanajuato first deducts ten annual UMAs, MXN 427,946.40 in 2026, from the value in every sale. Applied to the statutory table:

Those effective rates are arithmetic applied to the published tariff, which is deterministic. Under Article 42 of the Ley Hacendaria Municipal, ISAI is assessed on the highest of registered fiscal value, transaction value or a certified appraisal, so it cannot be reduced by declaring a low price alone.

Corrected 24 September 2026: earlier versions of this page applied the ISAI rate to the full value, omitting the statutory deduction of ten annual UMAs (MXN 427,946.40 in 2026) under Article 338 of the Ley Hacendaria Municipal para el Estado de Guanajuato. On MXN 10,000,000 the tax is MXN 362,007 (3.62 per cent), not 379,125 (3.79 per cent).

Total buyer closing costs are less settled. Mexico News Daily puts San Miguel at 5 to 6 percent against roughly 8 percent in Querétaro; Mexperience gives a general Mexican range of 5 to 10 percent; brokerage and publisher estimates for San Miguel cluster between 4 and 9 percent. None of these is derived from recorded transactions.

Annual predial runs on marginal rates of 0.234 to 0.354 percent for urban built property, applied to fiscal value rather than market value, with a 15 percent discount for paying in full in January. The ratio of fiscal to market value in San Miguel is not published anywhere, which means the statutory rate cannot be converted into a percentage of what you paid. That gap is worth stating plainly rather than papering over with an estimate.

What would have to exist for this page to be shorter

A median sale price from closed transactions. A price per square metre from closed transactions. A days-on-market series by price band. A published year-to-date closing count that does not contradict itself. An inventory breakdown by price band. A full buyer nationality mix. A cash-versus-financed split. A fiscal-to-market value ratio. Any of these from a body without a commission motive.

Since April 2026 brokerages reading the AMPI MLS have published three of them in part: a citywide median from April, and from August a citywide time to sell and a US share of identified buyers, 66 percent in the first half of 2026 on one firm’s count and 69 percent from 7 January to 30 September on another’s. The rest does not exist, and none of it exists from anyone without a commission. What exists is commissioned brokerages’ readings of one MLS, a handful of aggregators recycling listing-portal scrapes, and a national index that excludes this market by construction.

One further reason to hold brokerage data at arm’s length: in February 2026 Realty San Miguel reported no unusual incidents in San Miguel following cartel leader El Mencho’s death, and minimal travel cancellations. Mexican press reported an arson incident in San Miguel de Allende on 22 February with businesses and universities suspending activities, and a body showing signs of violence found in the municipality on 25 February, within a statewide reprisal wave that reached roughly 23 Guanajuato municipalities. San Miguel is not insulated from Guanajuato. A source that reported that month as uneventful is the same source supplying the averages and inventory figures above.

Use the numbers. Know what they are.

All prices in USD unless stated. Peso figures are converted at rates noted in the text. Past changes in average sale price are not appreciation and do not indicate future performance.