Market Intelligence 14 briefings
San Miguel de Allende Market Intelligence
Every figure we publish is sourced and dated. Where we cannot source something, we say so rather than estimate it.
The short answer, on the data to September 2026: the San Miguel de Allende resale market has cooled. Months of inventory stood at 30 in August 2026 on one brokerage's single-month method, after averaging 29.6 from January to May against 17.6 a year earlier, and against the 15 to 18 the same brokerage calls normal (inventory and absorption). The median closed price was $480,000 in the first half of 2026, across 181 closings, and the median time from listing to close 178 days; the 2025 average was $568,829, down from $650,462 in 2024 (prices, time to sell). The median short-term rental listing grosses $1,066 a month before costs (Airbnb income), and agents charge a customary 6 per cent plus IVA, an effective 6.96 per cent (agent commissions).
Every transaction figure in that paragraph comes from a brokerage reading the local AMPI MLS, which records MLS sales only. There is no public registry of San Miguel de Allende sale prices, the brokerages that publish are paid when homes sell, and every page here names which one a number came from. The full list of what still cannot be known is in what nobody publishes.
Every other source of this data earns a commission when you buy. That is not an accusation, it is a structural fact, and it shapes which numbers get published and which quietly do not. Overpriced inventory that sits unsold for a long time is a real feature of this market. You will not find it in a listing brochure.
This section is the counterweight. It carries the figures that exist and names the ones that do not: how long it takes to sell and what the round trip costs, the bear case, what the peso does to your return, the aquifer under the town, the market above $2 million, and San Miguel against five other Mexican markets, including the rows where it loses. Each page states its sources and the date they were current.
-
01 Market Intelligence
Prices and Appreciation in San Miguel de Allende
San Miguel de Allende's median closed sale price was $480K in H1 2026 and the 2025 average $568,829. What each measures, and the 2026 inventory build.
-
02 Market Intelligence
Short-Term Rental Yields and Regulation in San Miguel de Allende
The median San Miguel de Allende short-term rental grosses $1,066 a month before costs. The full revenue distribution, occupancy, the permit and the taxes.
-
03 Market Intelligence
San Miguel de Allende's Luxury Segment: Above $2 Million
Twelve San Miguel de Allende homes sold above $2 million in 2025, down from 19. What that explains about the falling average price, and what it does not.
-
04 Market Intelligence
San Miguel de Allende Against Five Other Mexican Markets
San Miguel de Allende compared with five Mexican markets on price, appreciation, Airbnb occupancy, safety advisory and title. Where San Miguel loses, too.
-
05 Market Intelligence
What Nobody Publishes About the San Miguel Market
No public registry publishes San Miguel de Allende sale prices. The significant gaps among the 156 we documented, and what to ask when a figure is quoted.
-
06 Market Intelligence
Real Estate Agent Commissions in San Miguel de Allende
San Miguel de Allende's customary agent commission is 6% plus 16% IVA, an effective 6.96%, paid by the seller. Who really bears it, and is it negotiable?
-
07 Market Intelligence
The Downside Case for San Miguel de Allende Real Estate
The bear case for San Miguel de Allende property: 29.6 months of inventory, a 12.6% fall in the 2025 average price, round-trip costs, currency, security.
-
08 Market Intelligence
Housing Inventory and Months of Supply in San Miguel de Allende
Months of supply in San Miguel de Allende averaged 29.6 from January to May 2026, against 17.6 a year earlier. Why the 11-month figure is out of date.
-
09 Market Intelligence
How Long It Takes to Sell Property in San Miguel de Allende
Homes that sold in San Miguel de Allende in H1 2026 took a median 178 days from listing to closing. What that figure misses, and what a round trip costs.
-
10 Market Intelligence
Currency Risk for Foreign Buyers in San Miguel de Allende
A dollar bought an implied 20.88 pesos in early 2025 and 17.46 in July 2026. What that does to a San Miguel de Allende purchase, its costs and resale.
-
11 Market Intelligence
Water Risk and the San Miguel de Allende Aquifer
CONAGUA records a 62 million m³ annual deficit in the aquifer under San Miguel de Allende and no volume left for new concessions. What it means for buyers.
-
12 Market Intelligence
San Miguel de Allende Real Estate Market Tracker
San Miguel de Allende's median closed home price: $480K in H1 2026, $372,500 in September on 38 sales that took 195 days. Every source, reconciled.
-
13 Market Intelligence
San Miguel de Allende vs Lake Chapala and Ajijic: What Changes When You Buy
Both give foreigners direct title. Ajijic has Guadalajara's hospitals, a lower transfer tax and water to spare; San Miguel has closed-sale price data.
-
14 Market Intelligence
San Miguel de Allende vs Querétaro: Two Markets an Hour Apart
Querétaro has a Level 2 advisory, 39 hospital establishments and its own airport, but a transfer tax near double San Miguel's and a deeper water deficit.
Common Questions
Where does San Miguel de Allende transaction data actually come from?
There is no public registry of closed sales for San Miguel de Allende. The Guanajuato property registry publishes no compraventa statistics and the local AMPI chapter publishes none, so every price and volume figure in circulation for this market is a commissioned brokerage reading of the local MLS. Realty San Miguel publishes monthly counts, averages and inventory; Rafael Mora Real Estate published a first-quarter 2026 median in April; since August 2026 Mike Fanelli of The Agency San Miguel de Allende has published monthly medians and days to sell; and Live In San Miguel publishes a year-to-date report on every closing. Their counts do not match, because their bases differ. That includes the figures we quote. Any figure quoted for this market should carry that limitation.
How many properties sold in San Miguel de Allende in 2025?
Nobody has published a count. The widely repeated figure of 504 resale closings in 2025 was never reported by any source: the underlying publisher reported 404 closings for 2024 alongside a 24.68 per cent increase for 2025, and 504 is the product of those two numbers. We describe it as implied, never as reported.
Is the San Miguel de Allende market rising or cooling?
Inventory rose materially through the first half of 2026. Months of inventory averaged 29.6 for January to May 2026 against 17.6 a year earlier, and active listings peaked at 860 in May 2026, roughly 45 per cent up year on year. The latest readings, for August, are 814 listings and 30 months of inventory on a single-month method, with closings through August 12.5 per cent behind 2025, all on one brokerage count. One publisher separately described inventory as normalising to about 11 months; both figures rank on page one and they do not agree.
What is the average property price in San Miguel de Allende?
One brokerage citywide annual average, drawn from its own MLS view, was US$568,829 for 2025 against US$650,462 for 2024. The median is the better guide, and closed-sale medians have been public since April 2026: a brokerage agent reading the local MLS put it at US$480K across 181 sales in the first half of 2026, against an average of US$627K for the same homes. There is still no public closed-sale figure at neighbourhood level and no price per square metre from a closed sale.
Free quarterly report · Q3 2026 edition
The report no agent will send you.
The SMA Wealth Intelligence Report, 80 pages, free. What homes actually closed for and how long they took, supply at 1.6 to 2 times what this market calls normal, six neighbourhoods, the full cost of buying, holding and selling, the law, and a briefing for your situation. It opens with a digest you can read in ten minutes. No commission agenda, because we do not earn one.