Market Intelligence
What Nobody Publishes About the San Miguel Market
Every number you have read about this market, including every number on this site, traces back to one brokerage counting its own sales. This page is the complete list of what is not knowable, compiled while researching everything else here.
- 0
- Public registries publishing SMA sale prices
- 1
- Ultimate source for all transaction data
- 156
- Data gaps we documented
- 0
- Published appreciation indices for any colonia
The Guanajuato Registro Público de la Propiedad publishes no compraventa statistics. Checked 23 July 2026.
Every closing count and average price in circulation traces to one brokerage's own MLS view.
Recorded while researching the rest of this site. The significant ones are listed below.
No repeat-sales index, no hedonic index, no MLS time series. Neighbourhood appreciation figures are estimates.
Most pages on this site publish numbers. This one publishes the absence of them.
While researching the rest of this site we kept a record of every figure a serious analysis would want and could not obtain. That record ran to 156 entries. What follows is the significant part of it, grouped by what it prevents you from knowing.
This is not a disclaimer. It is the most useful page here, because almost every figure quoted at a buyer in this market rests on one of these gaps, and none of the sources quoting them will tell you that.
The foundational problem
| What you would expect to exist | What actually exists |
|---|---|
| A public registry of sale prices | None. The Guanajuato Registro Público de la Propiedad records title transfers but publishes no compraventa statistics. |
| An industry body publishing market data | None. AMPI San Miguel de Allende publishes listings and an agent directory, and nothing else. Checked directly, 23 July 2026. |
| An official house price index | The SHF index covers only mortgage-financed purchases and publishes no San Miguel series. This market is overwhelmingly cash. |
| An independent MLS statistics feed | None. One brokerage publishes monthly counts from its own MLS view. That is the entire evidentiary base. |
Everything downstream follows from that table. When six different websites quote you the same average sale price, they are not corroborating each other. They are all quoting the same brokerage.
That brokerage’s data is the best available and we use it throughout this site. But it is unaudited, its coverage is partial by its own account — its updates reference an AMPI MLS transition and note that not all agencies participate in the same system — and it is published by an organisation that earns a commission when you buy.
What cannot be measured
Appreciation
There is no measured appreciation series for San Miguel de Allende at any level of geography. No repeat-sales index. No hedonic index. No MLS time series, citywide or by colonia.
This matters more than any other gap on this page, because appreciation is the single number most often used to justify a price. When you are told that a neighbourhood appreciates at 13 to 15 percent annually, no index produced that figure. It is an estimate built from listing data, and the method behind it is not published by anyone.
Days on market
No days-on-market figure derived from MLS or closed-sale records exists at any price point or at neighbourhood level.
The roughly 150-day citywide average in wide circulation is worth following to its source. One version cites a brokerage market update that contains no days-on-market data at all. Another cites the 2020 INEGI census, which cannot produce such a figure. The number is real in the sense that many people repeat it. It is not real in the sense of having been measured.
Price per square metre
Every published price-per-square-metre figure for San Miguel is an asking price or crowdsourced, never a closed sale. They disagree with each other by roughly a factor of two.
For scale on how thin the crowdsourced end is: Numbeo’s San Miguel property figures rest, by its own disclosure, on 50 entries from 9 contributors over 18 months. Its city-centre figure sits 74 percent above the citywide asking median another publisher released three days earlier.
The median
No median sale price from closed transactions exists for San Miguel de Allende, for any year.
Only averages are published. In a market where roughly a dozen transactions above two million dollars can swing the mean by tens of thousands of dollars, the average is the least informative statistic available, and it is the only one anybody publishes.
What cannot be verified
| Claim you will encounter | Why it cannot be checked |
|---|---|
| 2026 year-to-date sales volume | The one source publishing it reported 197 closings through May and 186 through June. A year-to-date count cannot fall. The 2025 comparative also shifts between posts. We publish no 2026 volume figure. |
| Sale-to-list ratios of 92 to 97 per cent | Mexico has no published sale-to-list database. The publisher carrying this figure states that it is inferred. |
| Short-term rental revenue and occupancy | No booking-verified dataset exists. Every figure comes from listing scrapers or commission-adjacent publishers. One widely cited source publishes a median above its own upper quartile, which is arithmetically impossible; we exclude it entirely. |
| Foreign resident population | The 2020 census recorded 4,312 foreign-born residents. Unsourced figures of 10,000 and above circulate freely. No defensible current count exists. |
| Neighbourhood walkability | No source gives a verified walking time or distance in metres from any colonia to the Jardín. Agent walking times are self-reported, undated and mutually contradictory. |
| Neighbourhood-level crime | No crime data is published below municipal level. Nothing specific can be said about the relative safety of one colonia against another. |
| Short-term rental compliance | No municipal count exists of how many properties actually hold and pay the permit. The compliance rate is unpublished. |
What this changes about how you should read anything
Three practical rules follow.
Ask what produced the number. Not who published it, what produced it. An appreciation rate should come from an index. A days-on-market average should come from transaction records. If the answer is that a brokerage estimated it, the figure is an opinion with a decimal point attached.
Treat agreement between sources as weak evidence. In this market, six sources quoting the same figure usually means six sources quoting one source. Corroboration requires independent measurement, and independent measurement mostly does not exist here.
Distinguish load-bearing figures from decorative ones. The fideicomiso question has a definitive legal answer and you can act on it. The neighbourhood appreciation rate does not, and building a purchase decision on a specific one is building on an estimate whose method nobody has published.
What we do about it
We publish the gap rather than filling it. Where this site states a figure, it carries its source and the date it was current. Where a figure would improve a page and cannot be sourced, the page says so instead of estimating, which is why several pages here contain sentences admitting that the most interesting number in the section does not exist.
That is a worse reading experience than the confident alternative. It is a considerably better basis for a decision involving several hundred thousand dollars in a foreign country.
If you find a source that closes one of these gaps, we would genuinely like to know. Send corrections and sources through the contact form.
Sources
- Guanajuato Registro Público de la Propiedad — confirmed to publish no transaction statistics · Checked 23 July 2026
- AMPI San Miguel de Allende — confirmed to publish no market statistics · Checked 23 July 2026
- Realty San Miguel — monthly market updates, the origin of effectively all SMA transaction figures · June 2026
- Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal — national and metro house price index (excludes cash purchases and publishes no SMA series) · 2026
- Numbeo — San Miguel de Allende property prices, per its own disclosure 50 entries from 9 contributors over 18 months · July 2026
Common Questions
Is there a public record of property sale prices in San Miguel de Allende?
No. The Guanajuato Registro Público de la Propiedad records transfers of title but publishes no compraventa statistics, and AMPI San Miguel de Allende, the local realtor association, publishes no market data either. Both were checked directly on 23 July 2026. Every closing count, average price and days-on-market figure in circulation for this market traces back to a single brokerage reporting on its own view of the local MLS.
Where does the '504 closings in 2025' figure come from?
It was never published by anyone. The underlying source reported 404 resale closings for 2024 and a 24.68 percent increase for 2025. Multiplying the two gives roughly 504, and that derived number then circulated as though it were a measurement. It is a reasonable inference and it may well be close to correct, but it is not a count, and nobody has published one.
Is there a median sale price for San Miguel de Allende?
Not from closed sales, for any year. Only averages are published, which in a market where a dozen sales above two million dollars can move the mean is close to meaningless. The medians you will find quoted are asking-price estimates derived from listing portals, and at least one publisher currently carries two different medians for San Miguel on two of its own pages, roughly 298,000 and 575,000 US dollars.
How reliable are neighbourhood appreciation figures for San Miguel?
They are estimates, not measurements. No repeat-sales index, hedonic index or MLS time series exists for any San Miguel colonia. Figures such as 13 to 15 percent annual appreciation for a given neighbourhood are derived from listing data and local reporting, and no source publishes the method behind them. Treat them as directional rather than precise.
Why does this matter if I am buying one property rather than analysing a market?
Because the figures are used to justify prices. If an asking price is defended by an appreciation rate that no index measures, or by a days-on-market average that traces to a document containing no days-on-market data, you are being sold a number rather than shown one. Knowing which figures are load-bearing and which are decorative is the practical use of this page.
Does Mexico's official house price index cover San Miguel de Allende?
No. The Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal index covers only mortgage-financed purchases and publishes series for states and designated metropolitan zones. San Miguel de Allende is not a designated metro area, and this market is overwhelmingly cash, so the index structurally excludes most of what happens here. National or state SHF appreciation figures should never be presented as San Miguel appreciation.
San Miguel de Allende · Heritage Equity
The report no agent will send you.
The SMA Wealth Intelligence Report. Transaction data, neighbourhood appreciation, and the full short-term rental yield distribution. No commission agenda, because we do not earn one.